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Problems of Forensic Sciences 2006  Vol. 65 (LXV)  68-81
 
STATISTICS IN FORENSIC SCIENCE. PART II. AN AID TO THE EVALUATION OF EVIDENCE

Colin G. G. AITKEN
School of Mathematics, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom


Abstract

This is the second of two papers describing roles for statistics in forensic science. Two procedures for the evaluation of evidence are compared. It is shown that a procedure based on significance testing has several unsatisfactory characteristics which can be overcome using a procedure which compares the probability of evidence under each of two propositions. Some comments on interpretation and on possible future directions for work in this area are given.


Key words

Evidence evaluation; Significance testing; Likelihood ratio; Interpretation of evidence.


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