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Problems of Forensic Sciences 2001  Vol. 46 (XLVI)  14-23
 
INTERPRETATION OF THE VALUE OF EVIDENCE

Colin Graeme Girdwood AITKEN
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom


Streszczenie

It has been argued for some time that the best way to evaluate evidence is to compare two probabilities, the probability of the evidence if the prosecution proposition is true and the probability of the evidence if the defence proposition is true. How these probabilities are used to evaluate evidence is explained. Various methods which have been used to interpret evidence are illustrated and their correctness or otherwise discussed. More education in the use of probabilities in a court of law is needed to ensure correct interpretations.


Słowa kluczowe

Bayes' theorem; Likelihood ratio; Defence fallacy; Prosecutor's fallacy.


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